The U.S. Dollar and Your Portfolio
The U.S. dollar has struggled over the last few years. The Canadian dollar recently reached parity with the greenback for the first time in three decades. In October 2000, the euro was worth 82 cents. Last year it hit a record $1.45 and kept going, while the British pound sterling was at a 25-year high. (All statistics are from the Federal Reserve system.) According to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, as of last August the dollar had dropped 26% (adjusted for inflation) against the major industrialized nations' currencies, and 7% against key emerging-market currencies, since early 2002.
If you have no plans to travel abroad, don't eat imported out-of-season fruit, and buy only domestic cars, a weaker dollar may not worry you. However, a falling dollar can lead to rising inflation. Not only can it affect the price of commodities such as oil, but with the higher cost of overseas products, domestic manufacturers may feel more comfortable raising prices. And inflation can lead to higher interest rates, which could affect everything from credit cards to mortgage rates.
A diluted dollar also can affect your portfolio. If you've held international investments in the last few years, you may have caught a tailwind. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, of course, and there are special risks to global investments, including not only currency risks but also political risks and different accounting standards. Risk factors vary considerably by country and region, and as with any investment, you can lose some or all of the funds you invest.
However, returns produced in part by the dollar's decline are one reason investing globally has become popular. According to the Investment Company Institute, more than 90% of the $160 billion of net new money added to stock mutual funds in 2006 went into funds investing in foreign companies.
Looking over the hedge
A mutual fund that invests overseas may or may not try to hedge against currency fluctuations. Some are managed to try to minimize the impact of exchange rates; others deliberately do not hedge their currency exposure. Your preferred approach will depend on your view of the dollar's future and how much currency exposure you want in your portfolio. A weaker dollar may boost an unhedged fund's performance because the fund holds securities denominated in other currencies. However, an unhedged fund would suffer more from any dollar recovery. Obtain and read a fund's prospectus carefully before investing.
Domestic can also be global
A weak dollar makes U.S. companies' products cheaper abroad, which has benefited many large multinational corporations that are headquartered here but have substantial overseas sales. According to Standard & Poor's, roughly 44% of the 2006 revenues of companies in the S&P 500 Stock Index came from international sources; in 2001, that figure was 32%. Even companies without overseas operations may benefit. For example, with higher prices for overseas goods, some distributors and retailers have begun to find less expensive U.S. suppliers. Also, a weak dollar in the past has made some U.S. companies targets for foreign acquisition.
What goes down can come up
The dollar goes through cycles, of course. A stronger economy, higher U.S. interest rates or lower rates abroad, foreign currency crises, market turbulence, or lower federal deficits could help boost the dollar's value. When determining your overall asset allocation, consider both your currency exposure and your level of international investments.



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